CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2017-09-06T12:24:00-CME-001)

Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2017 Sep 07 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at high levels. Region 2673 (S09W51,
Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) produced an X9/3n flare at 06/1202 UTC and an M7
at 07/1015 UTC. Further imagery is needed to determine if there was a
CME associated with the M7 event.

Available SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery confirms a CME was associated
with this X9 flare and likely has an Earth-directed component.
Forecaster analysis and WSA/Enlil modeling determined the CME would
arrive at the near-Earth environment late on 8 Sep.

Region 2674 (N14W34, Fki/beta) remained mostly inactive for the period
despite its continued potential. The remaining regions were stable and
inactive as well.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels over the
next three days (07-09 Sep), with a chance for very high levels, due to
the flare potential and recent history of Region 2673. Radio blackouts
reaching the R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) levels are expected for the next
three days (07-09 Sep), with a chance for R3 (Strong) radio blackouts.

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a maximum
flux of 7,220 pfu observed at 06/1705 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux reached S2 (Moderate) levels with a peak flux of 104 pfu at
06/0125 UTC.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to decrease to normal
to moderate levels on day one (07 Sep) due to the anticipated arrival of
the 04 Sep CME. On days two and three (08-09 Sep) 2 MeV electron flux is
expected to increase back to high levels.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at S1-S2
(Minor-Moderate) levels on day one (07 Sep) and into the first part of
day two (08 Sep). There remains a slight chance 10 MeV proton flux will
be above the S1 threshold into day three (09 Sep).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment was at near background levels through the
first half of the period. Solar wind speeds decreased from 470 km/s to
around 430 km/s, total magnetic field strength was generally less than 5
nT, and the Bz component was variable between +/- 3 nT. The phi angle
was predominately positive early in the day, then began to trend towards
a negative solar sector through the remainder of the day. At 
approximately 06/2308 UTC, an interplanetary shock was observed at the
DSCOVR spacecraft, signalling the likely arrival of the 4 Sep CME. Wind
speeds increased sharply from near 450 km/s to just over 600 km/s, with
total field strength increasing from 4 nT to 16 nT.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced for the next
two days (07-08 Sep) due to anticipated effects from the 04 CME. There
is a chance the environment will remain enhanced into day three (09
Sep) with the possible arrival of the 6 Sep CME late on 08 Sep/early on
09 Sep, and possible interaction with a recurrent, negative polarity CH
HSS.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field reached active levels due to influences from the 4
Sep CME.

.Forecast...
G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storm levels are likely for the next three days
(07-09 Sep) as a result of an inbound CME from 04 Sep, followed by the
arrival of the CME associated with the X9 flare, mid-to-late on day two
(08 Sep).

Exact time taken from: http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction

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If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

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